What. A. Market.

Over the past week, I notified subscribers in real time that I took on four new positions. Three of which are in the space theme:

4/10: LUNR
4/13: RDW
4/15: RKLB

At this point, LUNR is up almost 25%, RDW is up 15%, and RKLB is up 15%.

This was all part of the plan.

Last week, I published my SpaceX IPO Playbook where I discussed exactly what my plan is for the SpaceX IPO, how I planned to play the potential run up into the event, and much more. You can find it here. I think we executed this plan pretty well up to this point…

The goal of this Substack is not only to create timeless content, but also timely content. I want to give you information and ideas you can act on today like the SpaceX IPO Playbook, while also building a library of content like this article that you can come back to and learn from over time.

Now, for the current article.

You’ve all probably heard me say this over and over again…

From compression comes expansion.

From compression comes expansion simply means that when a stock spends time moving sideways in a tight range building structure and working through supply, it’s often preparing for a big move.

As volatility contracts and price tightens, buyers and sellers move closer to equilibrium. The weak hands get shaken out and supply gets absorbed by those buyers.

As a result, pressure builds. Think of it like a volcano.

For a long time nothing happens. Beneath the surface pressure is building. You can’t see it day to day and it’s boring watching a volcano do nothing.

Then eventually something gives and when it does it doesn’t happen slowly. The pressure releases all at once, and an explosion/eruption happens.

You could also think of it like a spring being compressed. The more it coils and tightens the more energy it stores. At some point it can’t compress any further and when it releases it does so quickly and with force.

Price behaves the same way. The longer and tighter the base, the more powerful the move tends to be once it breaks.

After the explosion in the indices the past few weeks, it would make sense to see a breather, pause, or small pullback.

This is the exact moment when these types of setups start to form. We’ve had a monster move up in so many names, we’re likely going to see some consolidation. And this is where big money can be made.

Of course, I’m going to be stalking setups like this and relaying them all to you in the weeks and months ahead.

In case you missed it, I’ve published four very important and timely articles.

1. Identifying Market Bottoms Across Cycles

2. How to Buy Stocks Near The Bottom

3. When to Press the Gas

4. How to Take Advantage of a Hot Market

The methodology and ideology in these four articles is what led me to buy stocks over the last few weeks, before the big moves in the indices. I strongly suggest reading these if you have a chance.

I think these are four of my best and most important articles I’ve written since starting this Substack.

In the remainder of this article I’m going to discuss my money printing setup more in depth along with annotated charts + examples, how you can enter these setups before the breakout, managing a compression, and more.

This is my favorite setup, and many of my biggest trades have come from this type of chart. Over the next few weeks, I expect we’ll start to see many of these setups form which will create major opportunity.

And we’ll be ready to capitalize, as we already have over the past few weeks.

Read more

The Nasdaq has rallied nearly 15% in just ten trading days, this is a historic move.

The question is no longer “will we bounce?” The question is “what happens now?”

Two weeks ago I uploaded an article titled “Liberation Day: 2026” found here. In this article I outlined and discussed why I believed the comparisons to last April were too strong to ignore, and so far this April has played out exactly the same as last April.

After seven months of consolidation in the indices, we could be entering a “hot market.”

Hot market (noun):

A market environment where momentum is strong and a large number of stocks across multiple sectors and themes are trending higher at the same time. In a hot market setups consistently work, breakouts follow through, pullbacks are shallow, volatility is low, themes are firing, etc.

Example in context:

“This is a hot market, there are too many good charts to even focus!”

Some people might say “haven’t we been in a hot market over the past few weeks?” The answer is yes, but not exactly. It’s been a brief two week stretch. When I think of a hot market, I think of a recent periods like we saw from May-October 2025, January-July 2023, October 2023-July 2024, 2020-2021,

We’ve had a positive environment for a few weeks, but when you zoom out and look at truly “hot” markets, these trends persist for many months, not just a few days or a few weeks.

What we’ve seen over the past few weeks is what I’d consider an appetizer, the entree is still in the kitchen.

In case you missed it, I’ve published three very important and timely articles.

1. Identifying Market Bottoms Across Cycles

2. How to Buy Stocks Near The Bottom

3. When to Press the Gas

The methodology and ideology in these three articles is what led me to buy stocks over the last few weeks, before the big moves in the indices. I strongly suggest reading these if you have a chance.

I think these are three of my best and most important articles I’ve written since starting this Substack.

It’s not important to buy stocks at the very bottom, but it is important to notice character changes and shifts in the market + individual names. These three articles outline how you can do that effectively.

A hot market can be overwhelming because there’s so much merchandise, so many groups, etc. acting well. It can be difficult to focus. If you know how to act during a hot market, it can be much easier to succeed.

Environments like this don’t last forever but when they show up, they can define your entire year if you handle them correctly.

In the remainder of this article I’m going to outline what I’m watching for next in the overall market, how to navigate a hot market, how you can identify one, which types of names and groups you want to hone in on, what types of pullbacks to buy, when to sell, how to hold stocks for longer and ensure you see big picture moves/gains, and more.

This is an important and timely article as we enter a potentially hot market leading into some of the most anticipated IPOs ever in SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, Anduril, and more.

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Every move is calculated but more importantly, every move is made with the expectation of how the other side will respond.

“At an appropriate moment, we are fully LOCKED AND LOADED and our Military will finish up the little that is left of Iran!”

This is the latest post that come from Donald Trump this morning.

We got the ceasefire. We got the meeting. Then what?

Talks with Iran failed on the nuclear issue and in response, the U.S. is now preparing to take potential military action focused on the Strait of Hormuz. This comes after we had a 10% index wide rally in the indices.

Over the last few weeks we’ve seen key moving average reclaims with leaders, themes, and groups acting well. If you feel you missed the “bottom” just know if that was the bottom, there will be near endless opportunity ahead.

Could this “escalation” provide a pullback + higher low that could be a large part of said opportunity in the days and weeks ahead…?

In case you missed it, I’ve published three very important and timely articles.

1. Identifying Market Bottoms Across Cycles

2. How to Buy Stocks Near The Bottom

3. When to Press the Gas

The methodology and ideology in these three articles is what led me to buy stocks over the last few weeks, before the big moves in the indices. I strongly suggest reading these if you have a chance.

I think these are three of my best and most important articles I’ve written since starting this Substack.

It’s not important to buy stocks at the very bottom, but it is important to notice character changes and shifts in the market + individual names. These three articles outline how you can do that effectively.

I also published my SpaceX IPO Playbook here where I discuss exactly what my plan is for the SpaceX IPO, how I plan to play the potential run up into the event, and much more. You can find it here.

I already added a position from this playbook that’s up nearly 10%, and based on the chart, I think there’s still more upside left.

In the remainder of this article I’m going to discuss my trading portfolio and plans for my holdings, the mega cap leader with massive AI tailwinds that may be on the verge of breaking out of a large base, data center stocks and the leading names within that group, and Nvidia.

I’ll also be discussing my favorite charts and setups, the overall market, key sentiment indicators that could offer clues on where we’re headed next, my plan in the event of a pullback, and more. Lots to discuss this week…

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Moments like this don’t come around often and when they do, there’s usually a way to capitalize and make money.

But how?

We have several narratives lining up at the same time for space:

• SpaceX IPO

• NASA going back to the moon

• Government mandate to make America the global leader in space

• Amazon potentially buying Globalstar to compete with SpaceX

Even in the middle of the market wide pullback we had the past few weeks, many space stocks continued to hold up and act much better than the rest of the market.

This is what relative strength looks like.

When you have an entire group that has:

• Narrative

• Thematics

• Fundamentals

• Technicals

All aligned at once, it’s something we want to pay very close attention to.

I’ve said many times that narrative + thematics + technicals + fundamentals are key to a strong individual trade, but when you apply that same logic to an entire sector, you can get some powerful, broad moves.

It’s true that many of these names don’t have the strongest fundamentals, but a lot of them do have real revenue and some do have real fundamentals. To make a good trade, you don’t need to hold forever.

Here for a good time, not a long time.

The key here is you don’t need to sell people on “rockets going to Mars” the way you do with something like data infrastructure or enterprise software. Space and this IPO is simple, emotional, and easy to understand. It gets retail excited.

The combination of hype, imagination, and visual storytelling gives space a major advantage when risk appetite is strong. And right now, risk appetite looks like it’s returning.

Add in arguably the most anticipated and richly valued IPO in history and you have a very compelling setup over the next few months.

Now, everyone is asking the same question…

How can I capitalize?

In the remainder of this article I’ll outline my entire SpaceX IPO playbook.

I’m going to review each space stock and its chart, their direct ties to SpaceX and how they fits into the broader IPO narrative, the most conservative ways to play this IPO, my personal plan, the names I’m most focused on getting positioned in, and much more.

These opportunities don’t come around often. When they do come around, it’s worth a swing…

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You’ve probably heard that a hundred times. But what does it actually mean?

There are times in this game when you press the gas and times when you don’t. The distinction is everything, this is what separates people who consistently make money in the market from those who don’t.

If you’re trading with the same size and frequency no matter the market environment, you’re making a big mistake and likely won’t last long as a market participant.

The past few months have emphasized that. You need to be “in tune” with the market and know when exactly you should scale up, or scale down. That’s the goal of this article.

Now don’t get me wrong, there are opportunities in a choppy market and we’ve been able to take advantage. Whether it’s buying DELL, MRVL, AKAM, or CRCL, we’ve made good progress.

I also added another position today and alerted subscribers in the chat because the market continues to act “different.” This is now the second week in a row we added exposure the same exact day we got a bullish headline.

Before the headline even came out.

We don’t control headlines but what we do control is when we choose to be aggressive. That should come when the odds are moving in our favor and the market conditions are acting as a tailwind, not when the market environment is facing headwinds.

The market environment has faced plenty of headwinds lately, that could be shifting...

In case you missed it, I’ve published two very important and timely articles.

1. Identifying Market Bottoms Across Cycles

2. How to Buy Stocks Near The Bottom

The methodology and ideology in these two articles is what led me to buy stocks early last week, I strongly suggest reading. I think these are two of my best and most important articles I’ve written since starting this Substack.

It’s not important to buy stocks at the very bottom, but it is important to notice character changes and shifts in the market + individual names. These two articles outline how you can do that effectively.

In the remainder of this article I’m going to discuss what to look for as a signal to press the gas and trade more often with larger size, what I like to see, what to look for as a signal to lay off and scale back, annotated charts and examples of healthy + unhealthy market environments, how to identify when conditions are starting to shift in our favor, and much more.

I believe this article will be just as important as the two articles listed above, and the three of these combined will make you much more prepared for the eventual market turn.

Read more

48 hours.

That’s the deadline Trump provided to Iran on Saturday morning, before a major escalation in the Middle East is set to take place.

He didn’t specify exactly what the escalation will be, but he mentioned “Hell will rain down” if no deal is made.

This past week we saw a big bounce in the market as market participants positioned for a potential bottom off key moving averages in the indices. One key thing to note is that nobody knows if we bottomed, all you can do is act with the context and information provided by the market.

And the most recent context has been:

• Largest buy volume day (Tuesday) in the S&P 500 since Trump told us to buy stocks in April 2025

• Reclaim of the 10 day and 50 week moving average in the Nasdaq

• Nasdaq reversing a 2% gap down to close green on Thursday after Trump’s press conference

• Oil surging on Thursday but oil related stocks staying flat

• Groups, individual names, and themes leading

• Bad news getting absorbed

• Horrible sentiment

Time will tell whether we bottomed or not, but this is the information we currently have. Also, this past week we’ve had numerous bad headlines that the market didn’t go lower on.

• Iran is not willing to accept a ceasefire

• New tariffs

• Iran not opening the Strait of Hormuz to the U.S.

A few weeks ago the market would have likely been slammed down with even one of these headlines. When stocks stop going down on bad news, it can be a good time to start paying attention.

In case you missed it, I’ve published two very important and timely articles.

1. Identifying Market Bottoms Across Cycles

2. How to Buy Stocks Near The Bottom

The methodology and ideology in these two articles is what led me to buy stocks on Tuesday morning this past week, I strongly suggest reading. I think these are two of my best and most important articles I’ve written since starting this Substack.

It’s not important to buy stocks at the very bottom, but it is important to notice character changes and shifts in the market + individual names. These articles outline how you can do that effectively.

In the remainder of this article I’m going to discuss the overall market, the developments in Iran and what I expect from the market if we see further escalation, and the strongest group in the market with a major pending catalyst + the names within that group that have yet to break out.

I’ll also dive into my biggest focus name with a big multi year base that’s had a wave of meaningful catalysts over the past few weeks, a major under the radar Agentic AI beneficiary, my favorite charts + focus list for new adds, my trading account + newest positions, and more.

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April 2nd, 2025 is the day Donald Trump shocked the world with his “Liberation Day” tariff declaration.

Days later the markets bottomed.

Nearly one year later, we’re in a very similar spot but under very different circumstances.

Last night, Trump stepped in front of the country during a primetime address very similar to the one in the Rose Garden last year, and instead of giving markets the clarity that started to be anticipated after a big rally, he introduced even more uncertainty into an already fragile situation.

But… the market reversed an initial gap down and closed green.

The news is bad, the charts are bad, sentiment is bad, everything is bad. Nobody knows when the exact bottom is but what we do know is that the market won’t wait for positive headlines, great sentiment, and joyful news flow to bottom. Whether it’s 2018, 2020, 2022, or 2025, the notable “recent” market pullbacks didn’t wait for the “all clear” before resuming higher.

The April 6th deadline tied to strikes on Iranian power plants remains in place, and the rhetoric around escalation hasn’t slowed down. There are also numerous rumblings surrounding the potential of boots on the ground over this coming long weekend.

The messaging itself has been very inconsistent with claims that Iran has been significantly weakened alongside statements suggesting continued, heavy strikes over the next three weeks.

On the surface that contradiction creates uncertainty.

Under the surface though, it’s created opportunity which is why I let subscribers know in the subscriber chat that I was buying names like DELL around $156 before the announcement that sent markets soaring.

I strongly suggest joining the subscriber chat if you haven’t already. There are a lot of sharp people in there sharing ideas throughout the day, and I’m active in there all throughout the trading day myself.

Throughout this pullback, I’ve held onto core positions with strong cost basis advantages and stayed positioned in leading names, like MRVL with an $84 cost basis, and even months in cases like GEV and NXT.

We’ve stayed disciplined through this stretch, and there is very likely to be meaningful opportunity ahead.

Where does the market go from here? What do I see in the charts? Why did I add exposure on Tuesday, and why did I mention the potential character change? Those are good questions, and I’m going to walk through it all below.

Markets have operated through this exact type of uncertainty many times before, as recent as one year ago.

The disconnect between what is being said and what is actually happening is not new. Do you remember last year in April of last year, when China was emphatic that they were not in communications with the U.S. yet the Nasdaq finished the session 2% higher?

In the coming days and weeks, it was revealed that the U.S. and China were in fact discussing a potential trade agreement.

This is normal.

Bad news is being absorbed.

We’ve seen it in prior geopolitical events, trade disputes, and even during the pandemic. While it’s not ideal that this uncertainty exists, what matters more is how the market absorbs that uncertainty.

The big issue everyone is focused on is the Strait of Hormuz. This is the critical variable in this entire situation as it’s one of the most important chokepoints in the global energy market and oil prices are holding a steady bid. But this is also the point where the market can start to be more forward looking.

Earlier today, we got news that Iran and Oman are drafting a protocol to "monitor transit" through the Strait of Hormuz. Shortly after, we got news that the U.S. will not be allowed to use the Strait.

This is very similar to when China mentioned they were “listening” to the U.S. in negotiations one day, then would deny any meaningful communication at all the next.

It’s a lot of noise, you just have to watch price.

Iran is signaling that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz would be “supervised and coordinated” alongside Oman. More importantly, they are framing this as a system meant to facilitate safe transit and avoid further disruptions. Not a restriction.

This is being described as part of a potential post war framework with the stated goal of preventing future aggression and creating a more controlled environment. The messaging is conflicting, but you need to read between the lines and look underneath the surface.

Even in scenarios like this one where oil spikes and uncertainty is running wild, markets can begin pricing in outcomes before they fully play out. We’ve seen this repeatedly in past geopolitical events where initial shocks lead to volatility but over time, markets adapt and pricing stabilizes.

The rally we’re seeing is a result of extreme negative sentiment and a public that was leaning towards a major negative outcome, ones that leaned heavily towards major escalation such as boots on the ground. We didn’t get that (yet… this would change things).

Nothing changed after the press conference last night. The deadline is the same and we have a few weeks of this operation was left. That was already in the news and there were plenty of headlines discussing it.

The past week or so has seen a sizable bounce.

This type of sharp move higher in such a short period of time can be a signal that there is demand underneath the surface. We aren’t even in a bear market, so this can’t be a bear market rally yet. It could be a dead cat bounce, but a bear market rally needs to come in a bear market.

Instead of viewing these rallies as something to fade immediately, I always view them as a signal that a bottom *could* be forming. While it’s true that there are almost always major rallies in downtrends, it’s also true that when bottoms form, rallies ensue.

To cement a bottom you need a rally off the bottom.

From a technical standpoint, there is no denying that the short term setup has been weak. On the other hand, the Nasdaq quickly recovered the 10 day and 50 week moving average while on Tuesday we saw the biggest buy volume we’ve seen since the day Trump told us to buy stocks back in April 2025.

In the image above, you can see the big green volume bar off to the right. That was this past Tuesday. The white line shows you that we have not had such large buying volume since last April.

I’m not the biggest indicator or MACD person, everyone knows that. But I do think taking an indicator and looking at it with additional context can be very useful

No chart, just the weekly QQQ MACD. What do you notice? The MACD line has only hit this level of “oversold” four times over the last six years. 2020, 2022, 2025, and now. We’ve had plenty of pullbacks along the way throughout the last six years, yet the MACD has only approached this level three times other than right now.

Something? Or nothing?

On it’s own, likely nothing. But when you add it in as a “piece of the puzzle” it can definitely be something.

We also know that every bottom comes with a higher low.

The initial low is made, the market bounces, we pull back, and either we set a higher low, or we make new lows. Are we making a higher low now?

This looks like it could be the textbook higher low with a 10 day moving average reclaim.

It will only be obvious in hindsight.

All we can do is take all of the information and context provided to us and act on it accordingly. Sometimes we’ll be wrong, and you have to accept that as a possibility while trading. For now, all of these factors listed pieced together paints a more constructive picture than what we’ve had over the past month or so.

I want to discuss what made me add more exposure on Tuesday before the big move started. I sent out a thread that I was buying stocks 10 minutes before the announcement. Why?

I had been mentioning I want to see a change in character, and in my view we started to see it.

The first thing that stood out was the fact that the gap up held in the morning. Over the past week or two, nearly every morning gap up faded quickly. This one didn’t. While it did drift lower, it wasn’t a chaotic and “rush for the exits” selloff. Not only that, but buyers stepped in aggressively. This was a major change in character and it’s part of the reason I added more exposure.

Then came the announcement that Iran was willing to discuss a way to end the war, this sent the markets soaring. Not only did good news = good news initially, but the pop didn’t fade. This tells you that the underlying bid is strong, and that’s why we saw more continuation the next day.

Although we gapped down today, the gap down was bought. We’re now in a place where gap downs are getting bought and gap ups are being bought.

That is what I consider a potential character change.

Leaders also have been acting really well. Whether it’s PL, AAOI, LITE, GEV, MRVL, DELL, BE, etc. there is no shortage of strong stocks in this market.

These are the stocks I want to own out of a correction, and I have tried to position my portfolio as such. As I always do, I’ll review my trading account on Sunday and provide my updated thoughts on all of my positions.

I’m a strong believer in focusing on leaders and leading stocks vs. the indices and we’ve seen nothing but strength in a multitude of stocks over the last few weeks.

Right now the market is shifting. Short term uncertainty is high, volatility is elevated, we’re getting mixed messaging, and tension is still high across the globe. The path forward is not entirely clear.

A lot of being a market participant comes down to feel. And something feels different.

Those are the types of conditions a bottom can form in.

This is an acknowledgment that we should be paying close attention. For weeks I have been very cautious and haven’t had as much interest in new positions.

That has changed. Perfect conditions rarely come at turning points.

The key for me is to stay focused on what actually matters, markets don’t bottom on good news. They bottom when conditions seem most chaotic or stop getting worse. This change is often subtle at first and yes it happens before the headlines completely improve.

At some point the market will completely absorb and accept the uncertainty and move higher, just like it has in every prior drawdown. The goal is not to predict exactly when that happens, but to be prepared for it when it does.

While everything may feel uncertain right now, that is often exactly where the next opportunity begins. I still have plenty of long exposure in names like DELL, GEV, MRVL, etc. and as you all know I am currently adding more exposure.

I will look to add more in the days/weeks ahead and as always, I will send out a thread with my new positions when I add them.

I hope you all have a great weekend and enjoy your additional day off. Talk soon.

Disclaimer:

This Substack is my personal trading journal and market commentary. Nothing here should be interpreted as investment advice, financial guidance, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. I am sharing my own opinions, research, and thought process strictly for informational and educational purposes.

Trading and investing in stocks, futures, crypto, or any other asset class carries significant risk, including the potential loss of capital. I make no guarantees of profit or outcome. You are solely responsible for your own financial decisions.

By reading, subscribing to, or engaging with this newsletter, you acknowledge that you are doing so at your own risk and understand this is a personal blog, not a professional service.

This is a common question, and one we’ve all heard lately.

Buying a bottom is not the same as catching a falling knife. They are two very different things.

The best opportunities and strongest trends tend to come after major selloffs. It’s likely that on the other side of this one, whenever that may be, we’ll see a clean uptrend with plenty of opportunity.

But you need to survive the chop and messy price action long enough to capitalize.

In times like this you don’t want to get chopped up and drain both your mental and fiscal capital. Instead, it’s best to trade smaller and prepare for the eventual turn. If you can avoid the chop and the bulk of the downtrend but then capitalize on the uptrend when it comes, the time sitting on the sidelines will be well worth it.

And that’s the goal here.

Although buying the bottom isn’t important, being able to identify a bottom can be important. If you can spot a potential bottom forming, you can begin to increase sizing and position ahead of the herd.

But the issue is that identifying a bottom can be difficult.

If you don’t know what to look for…

In April 2025, I posted the following:

What’s important isn’t that I “called the bottom” and that’s not meant to be the takeaway here. The takeaway is that there were elements and conditions forming a bottom that led me to the conclusion that it was time to buy.

Are we getting closer?

This morning at 12:29PM EST, I let subscribers know via the subscriber chat that I took three new positions. 10 minutes later, we got news that sent the markets spiking.

“Today has felt different up to this point so throughout the morning I’ve added some new exposure…”

But what does that feeling mean?

In the remainder of this piece I’m going to discuss exactly what I look for to identify a potential bottom in the indices, real annotated chart examples of relevant and important bottom formations throughout the 2000s with thorough explanations, how you can trade and play against a potential bottom, and much more.

This is probably my favorite article I’ve written so far, and I think it might be my most useful.

Read more

I’m feeling some déjà vu.

Anyone else?

The timeline, the timeframe, everything looks very similar to what we saw in March–April 2025, except this time instead of tariffs it’s war in the Middle East. And in my view the implications are much more serious.

Even down to the negotiations. The U.S. comes out and says everything is going well and they’re negotiating, Iran says there are no serious discussions. China did the same thing.

Notably, Trump’s attempts to calm the market down are having less and less impact. A few weeks ago, his Truth Social posts claiming progress would be met with optimism and a broad bid across the market. Now we get a small pump and it fades shortly after.

If this isn’t resolved quickly, the market will likely enter a tailspin like we saw last year. As of now, the Nasdaq is down about 11%. Last April, the Nasdaq dropped 26%, so that would be more than double the size of the current pullback.

Time is running out.

It’s easy to feel eager to buy the pullback, but one thing that is very important to realize is that the big money is made in the middle.

Being focused on buying the exact bottom is pointless. Oftentimes, someone who buys a bit higher than someone who bought the low can make more because probability and confidence stack in their favor.

This increases the odds of adding real size or holding for a bigger move.

Someone who bought the exact bottom could have sold after 10% because of “dead cat bounce” fears, while someone who bought 10% off the lows could still be holding as it continues higher.

Through a pullback, I’m always watching for a bottom, but I’m not going all in trying to catch it. There’s a difference. I’ll take probing positions in names acting well, but tight stops and smaller size keep risk low. A real bottom will present plenty of opportunity to get involved on the way back up with size.

I would rather pay a little more in the early recovery phase with size than try to catch a bottom with size that doesn’t end up being the bottom.

In the remainder of this article I’m going to discuss a small cap AI name showing major relative strength with a steady stream of positive news, an under the radar group acting just like oil that almost nobody is talking about, my thoughts on Nvidia and the chart, how I’m navigating this environment and managing my trading account and which names I’m still interested in adding, the overall market, the situation in Iran, sentiment and narrative indicators, and several big picture weekly and monthly charts that still look strong despite the war, and more.

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Memory is the most notable.

Stocks in this group have already seen massive gains as the market began to recognize how critical they are to the AI story. Whether it’s Micron, SanDisk, or Western Digital, they’ve all gone on to have monster runs.

But today, there’s a new bottleneck that isn’t being discussed.

For the past two years, the AI trade has been very simple.

If you wanted AI exposure you followed GPUs and the infrastructure that surrounded the GPUs. AI training and inference workloads were dominated by compute, and GPUs were the clear winner in that environment.

This led to a massive concentration of capital in the GPU space.

That environment is starting to shift a bit because AI itself is evolving. AI systems are becoming more complex and more dependent on what happens outside of the model or outside of a chat bot like Claude or ChatGPT. As that happens the bottleneck is moving in a direction many people aren’t paying attention to.

Yet.

In the remainder of this article, I’m going to break down what I believe is the next major AI bottleneck, the core thesis behind it, how I’m currently positioned within this group, the names most directly exposed to this bottleneck, which names I’m looking to add, and more.

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Over the past few weeks as the market has gone through this correction, I’ve watched market participants continue to buy thinking they’re getting a good price. Only to watch those same stocks continue to bleed lower in the following days and weeks as the drawdown continues.

Reality is that a stock can be 20%, 30%, even 50% off its highs and still not be near a true bottom.

What makes buying stocks in a downtrend so difficult is how convincing the bounces can be. The most powerful and vicious rallies often happen within downtrends which makes it very easy to start buying near a local high thinking you’re buying in the middle of a major turn.

In reality you’re often just buying the top of a rally only to realize you stepped into what many call a “dead cat bounce.”

This is often one of the biggest mistakes a market participant can make, and yes it’s avoidable…

If you know what to look for.

In the remainder of this article I’m going to discuss how bottoms develop, how I buy stocks in a downtrend near the lows and the setups I look for, the psychology behind a bottom, what exactly I look for to determine a bottom is in on both individual stocks and the indices, examples of what a bottom looks like with annotated charts + commentary, and much more.

This is a timely article that I think everyone can benefit from as the market searches for it’s next bottom.

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We’re now over three weeks into the U.S. x Iran conflict and there’s still no clear end in sight.

Over the past few days the narrative has changed seemingly by the hours. Reports of boots on the ground followed by headlines suggesting the administration is satisfied with how things have played out and may look to wind things down. It’s inconsistent and more importantly it creates the kind of environment that leads to uncertainty across markets.

Nothing is clear right now and that reinforces one thing.

Volatility is the price of admission.

If you want exposure to the greatest wealth generation machine on the planet, you have to accept risk and volatility.

If the stock market and investing was a risk and volatile way to make money, everyone would be participating.

On that same note, it’s important to recognize that not all market environments are the same and they shouldn’t be traded the same way.

An environment like we’re currently in with the VIX above 25, endless headlines, oil surging, and indices sitting below key moving averages is completely different from a market trending higher above those levels with low volatility and little to no news flow.

What works best in a clean tape doesn’t work the same way right now. This type of market demands more precision, selectivity, tighter risk management, and a very high level of patience.

That’s something we have been practicing. Trading with major intent, selectivity, and patience.

Underneath the hood, there are ways to capitalize.

In the remainder of this article I’m going to discuss a group I think is a major hidden winner of the energy crisis and the leading names within it starting to show character changes, under the radar space stocks with a major hidden war angle, the names and charts showing major relative strength, the situation in the Middle East, the Wall of Worry market participants fear, what the indices are telling us, the latest FOMC meeting and what it means for the market, how I’m managing my current positions, and more.

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In strong environments it’s easy to participate. Clean trends, easy breakouts, buyable pullbacks, low volatility, and little to no news flow.

Pretty straightforward.

When the environment changes and volatility picks up with headlines coming out every hour, it becomes much more important to be selective. This is where most market participants start to struggle.

Why? Setups that used to work begin to fail, momentum fades quicker, breakouts reverse, pullbacks don’t hold key levels, etc.

What’s key in an environment like this is not focusing solely on what’s going lower, but what isn’t going lower?

Underneath the surface of a weak or choppy market there are typically a handful of names doing something different. While the indices are getting weaker and selling off, some stocks buck that trend and get stronger. This is one of the clearest signals the market can give you. It’s called relative strength.

Relative strength in an individual stock is when the general market environment is poor and trending down but certain stocks refuse to go lower, and in some cases go higher. These are the names institutions and even smart retail investors are accumulating.

If a stock is acting strong in a weak market, what will it do in a stronger market? It doesn’t take much imagination to figure that out.

Weak markets in many ways are a filtering mechanism.

Stocks that hold up best or bottom early in a weak market often lead when the environment changes. The stocks that act weakest are likely going to lag when the market eventually flips bullish again.

If you pay attention, weak markets are where future leaders begin to separate themselves from the rest of the market. When all stocks are under pressure, the stocks that hang in are the ones to focus on.

It’s important to emphasize that the goal during these periods isn’t to be overly aggressive or to force trades in leaders just to stay active. Smaller size, less trading is how I approach these environments. But I do observe closely.

I study which names are holding up, which are acting constructively, which sectors and themes act well, and which groups are weakest.

When the market eventually stabilizes and conditions improve, leadership won’t just randomly appear out of nowhere. It’s already there, but the biggest gains come when that leadership is identified before the turn, not after.

In the remainder of this article I’m going to discuss how you can identify relative strength, the scanners I use, how you can act on strong stocks in a weak market, which stocks are displaying major relative strength in this current market, and what it means going forward.

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Last month, the core themes I highlighted were memory, defense, Agentic AI, and “new age energy.”

A few names highlighted in February’s “State of The Themes” article included:

• SNDK at $600 (now $730)

• MU at $400 (now $460)

• LHX at $340 (now $370)

• NET at $190 (now $212)

• FSLY at $17 (now $24)

• BE at $140 (now $160)

• GEV at $820 (now $845)

This is why I strongly believe it’s important to stay in tune with what themes and groups are acting well and leading the market, you can find some of your biggest gainers over the coming weeks.

I want to quickly respond to a popular question I get pretty often. One thing many people ask me is “what is the difference between a sector and a theme?” This is a very good question.

A sector is something like technology, energy, healthcare, or financials. These are broad classifications used to group companies based on what they do as a business.

A theme is different. A theme cuts across multiple sectors and is usually driven by a larger shift in technology, narrative, or behavior. Something like AI, domestic semiconductor manufacturing, drones, or memory are themes.

They can pull companies from different sectors into the same narrative because they are all benefiting from the same underlying change.

For example, AI is not a sector. It includes semiconductor companies in technology, utilities and power producers in energy, industrial companies building infrastructure, and even software to a degree. The opportunity exists across sectors because the theme itself has multiple different “tentacles.”

Understanding this distinction matters because although sectors rotate often, strong themes tend to persist much longer.

You can identify a theme in a few ways.

It requires paying attention to the world beyond just the ticker symbols and earnings announcements. Investors who spend most of their time staring at their screen miss the evolving context that actually move markets. The most powerful trends begin in:

• Political-government decisions-orders

• Energy constraints

• Technological breakthroughs

• Scientific publications

• Product announcements or events

• Regulatory changes

• Security or geopolitical conflicts

• Consumer behavior trends

• Infrastructure bottlenecks

There are plenty of ways a theme can show itself, but the most reliable way is through the little under appreciated nuggets outlined above.

When you have multiple stocks across a group or theme moving higher at the same time, that’s a clear indication that accumulation across a theme is taking place.

Even laggards can act well when a theme is strong and oftentimes the stocks with the worst fundamentals actually outperform. We saw this with nuclear, when something like OKLO went up thousands of %, but the highest quality nuclear name in the market CEG only went up a few hundred %.

In the remainder of this article I’m going to run through my personal trading account exposure to these themes, which themes I’m watching closest, and which are potentially getting ready for their next moves higher. I’ll walk through my favorite individual stocks within each group, the charts and setups I’m watching, and how I’m thinking about each theme.

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We’re inching closer to week three of the war between the U.S. and Iran, with no end in sight. Yet.

Overwhelming public sentiment seems to be getting worse from both a market and societal perspective. Boots on the ground in the Middle East is getting closer to reality, gas prices are spiking, the “death of white collar jobs” narrative and layoffs are accelerating (Block cut 40% of their staff a few weeks ago, and Meta is rumored to be close to a 20% cut), and stocks are weakening.

This is not a healthy trading environment, and it hasn’t been for quite some time now.

Although it’s been difficult, one thing remains true:

You should never take a big loss.

It’s the most important rule of trading that any successful trader will tell you, non negotiable. Losing trades are inevitable, everyone loses. What isn’t inevitable is big losses. Why? Because we control the size of our losing trades. If you take a big loss it’s because you let a small loss turn into a big one, it should never happen.

There should only be four outcomes while trading:

Big win
Small win
Breakeven
Small loss

That’s it, big losses shouldn’t be an option. If you program yourself to not allow big losses, your chances of success will increase exponentially. A tough environment does not excuse a big loss. We are all responsible for our own decisions, wins, and losses. The market is one of the few areas of life where we have complete control over our risk and outcomes.

The market is teetering, but there is still opportunity to make money out there both long and short.

In the remainder of this article I’m going to walk through the overall market, important sentiment/narrative indicators + charts, the strength in crypto and the best setups within that group, my new favorite AI infrastructure stock that I’m considering as both a trade and potentially a long term investment, an under-discussed potential AI catalyst, the strongest charts and setups across a weaker market, a review of my trading account holdings with updated thoughts on each position, and more.

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The war between the U.S. and Israel and Iran has now entered its second week and so far there are no real signs of de-escalation. Rhetoric and positioning from both sides actually says the opposite.

But do they truly mean the opposite…? Or is it just posturing?

Earlier today, Iran’s newly appointed Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei made his first public remarks since taking power and the message was clear: Iran intends to escalate.

Khamenei said the Strait of Hormuz must remain closed as a “tool to pressure the enemy.” Iran knows that high oil prices not only puts pressure on American citizens, but political pressure on the Trump administration.

He also warned that all U.S. military bases in the Middle East should shut down immediately and said those bases could be attacked.

Roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Since the war began, shipping through here has effectively stopped. What has that done? Increased oil prices significantly.

Iranian officials have said crude could spike toward $200 per barrel if the war continues. To me, this is further indication that they know high oil prices are negatively impacting Americans.

From a market perspective the message is clear, as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed there will be major pressure on global energy markets, in turn putting pressure on equity markets.

This is a difficult market to navigate, no doubt about it. But if you have the right plan and focus on the process rather than the outcome, you can still manage it very effectively.

In the remainder of this article I’ll walk through how I’ve been navigating the current environment, how I approach position sizing during periods of elevated volatility, the sectors and stocks continuing to show the most relative strength that could have bottomed before the market, my favorite hedging + trade ideas, and more.

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The key to holding through volatility and capturing bigger picture moves comes down to conviction. Conviction comes from consistently revisiting the fundamentals, technicals, story, narrative, and thematic tailwinds behind each company.

In this article I’m going to walk through my thoughts on each of my long term holdings, the charts, discuss where I’d be willing to add, break down the most recent earnings reports, and revisit the broader thesis behind each position. My views on a few companies have shifted and I’m very close to exiting one position entirely.

At the end, I’ll also include my long term portfolio watchlist which includes the companies I am most interested in adding as long term investments.

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Meanwhile, Crude Oil is +41% over the last month and the VIX is +70%.

This is what many would call stress building under the surface.

The conflict in Iran continues to intensify, with Trump vowing to continue hitting Iran “hard.” Rumors are even starting to swirl that American troops could have boots on the ground in the Middle East over the coming weeks.

The environment is difficult but as market participants there is nobody there to stop us from making bad decisions. Only ourselves. Restraint is an edge, the market will still be here when the environment changes. If you aren’t careful, your capital might not be.

It’s more important than it’s been in a long time to be selective, this is something I have been emphasizing and discussing at length. In an uptrend or “easy money environment” you can get away with making “mistakes” or “bad decisions” but still get bailed out by the market because a rising tide lifts all boats. Not now.

There are still plenty of opportunities out there, and we have been able to capitalize.

Whether it’s NOW, CRCL, or FIG, we have been focused on what is working now, not what was.

I also want to quickly highlight that I published my third thematic primer last Sunday, this one focused on Advanced Defense + Drones. You can find the link here. My first two primers focused on the Power Grid (published 11/26 here) and Space (published 12/9 here).

In this latest primer, I discussed how the escalating situation in Iran, AI increasingly being viewed as a national security issue, and a gigantic military budget is creating a historic tailwind for modern defense and advanced warfare companies. I also included a basket of defense + drone companies I believe are positioned to outperform the broader market as this theme develops.

So far the baskets across each thematic primer have performed quite well. Since publication, the Power Grid basket is up +20% and the Space Race basket is up +45%, while both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 have been negative over those same timeframes.

In the remainder of this article I’m going to discuss a historic short squeeze candidate, a group of stocks benefiting from the conflict in the Middle East that nobody is talking about, my newest semiconductor position with a great technical, narrative, fundamental, and thematic backdrop, my favorite big base in a healthcare/medical device company and the big picture thesis behind it, the broader market, volatility and the VIX, the evolving situation in the Middle East, charts, setups, and more.

Let’s discuss.

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Volatility has picked up but periods like this often begin to create opportunity beneath the surface.

Over the past week we’ve already seen early signs of life in a few beaten down groups. Both crypto and software, two groups that had been crushed for months, have seen big moves. The question now is whether this is just a dead cat bounce or the early stages of a broader bottom forming in these sectors…

Either way, we have taken advantage.

Last Thursday in my Software Armageddon post, I discussed why I believed software was finally reaching a point where the risk/reward looked compelling.

Since then, the group has rallied meaningfully with many names advancing 10% or more. I also disclosed a new software position in that article which is already up roughly 12% in just one week from the day it was purchased. If you missed that post, you can find it here.

Even in these types of environments, there can be opportunity. You just have to know where to look.

Outside of those small pockets of strength the broader market has still been choppy and difficult to navigate. Even so, there are a number of setups beginning I’m seeing that are worth paying attention to. In the remainder of this article, I’m going to review 30+ charts, many of which are sitting on low risk/reward areas that might look like obvious add spots in hindsight.

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One thing all of these stocks have in common is that they’re in the right theme.

AAOI: lasers and optical transceivers tied to AI data center buildouts.
AXTI: compounds feeding advanced chips and photonics.
AEHR: test and burn in systems critical to silicon carbide and semiconductors.
LASR: industrial laser systems.

Lasers, optics, photonics, semiconductors.

These are themes that have been moving higher over the last few months, despite the weakness in the indices and underneath the hood in former leaders. The key to finding these types of stocks is finding the right stocks at the right time in the right theme.

I want to mention that AEHR and AAOI were highlighted in this Substack far lower than current prices, very recently:

Now, I have my eye on a few different names here.

These are six small caps (sub $3B market cap) I believe are positioned in the right themes and groups at the right time. I have been discussing some of these stocks in the subscriber chat over the last few weeks, if you’re not in I suggest joining. We have a solid group of minds in there sharing ideas.

Identifying smaller companies that sit in front of structural demand shifts has been key to success in this market environment. In the remainder of this article I’m going to discuss each name individually, walk through the underlying potential narrative, the levels I’m watching, and my thesis for why I think the setup is compelling here.

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