Fear Is Here. Is This An Opportunity?
Is this the end of the bull market?
The momentum unwind is intensifying.
Today felt like the first time there was actually a bit of fear in the market.
Earlier this morning, stocks like DELL, SNDK, LITE, and others were down as much as 15% or more. Many others were down over 10%.
One thing that’s been made crystal clear is the fact that you can’t just buy any stock at any price and expect to hold it forever. Many of the stocks down big today are the same stocks still up hundreds of % YTD.
Is this capitulation? A normal reset after a huge run? More on that later.
The rest of the week is arguably the most important week the market has had in a long time. Not only do we have FOMC tomorrow, but we also have mega cap tech earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Apple.
There are a lot of questions that still need to be answered, and we’re going to get those answers imminently.
Those answers will provide key insight into where the market is headed from here.
If you’re not already in the subscriber chat, I strongly suggest paying attention to it.
This is where I post all of my new trades as I enter them. I walk through the trade idea entirely including my thesis, risk level, cost basis, and more.
The subscriber chat is also where I post a daily thread with my thoughts on the day ahead, relevant headlines and macro events, my main focus names, notable upgrades and downgrades, and anything else I’m watching.
It’s basically become a live market group chat. We have a ton of smart people sharing ideas, setups, headlines, and observations throughout the day, and there’s a lot of genuine alpha in there.
I honestly believe it might be one of the most (if not the most active) subscriber chats on Substack.
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In the remainder of this article, I’m going to discuss:
The signals that are giving us information about where we are in this downtrend
FOMC and different scenarios
Semis, memory, and the AI trade broadly
Nvidia
KOSPI
Magnificent Seven
Standouts after todays carnage
And more.
There’s a lot to discuss as we head into the most important few days the market has seen in months.
We’re at an inflection point.