Liberation Day: 2026
Is the low in...?
One year ago today.
April 2nd, 2025 is the day Donald Trump shocked the world with his “Liberation Day” tariff declaration.
Days later the markets bottomed.
Nearly one year later, we’re in a very similar spot but under very different circumstances.
Last night, Trump stepped in front of the country during a primetime address very similar to the one in the Rose Garden last year, and instead of giving markets the clarity that started to be anticipated after a big rally, he introduced even more uncertainty into an already fragile situation.
But… the market reversed an initial gap down and closed green.
The news is bad, the charts are bad, sentiment is bad, everything is bad. Nobody knows when the exact bottom is but what we do know is that the market won’t wait for positive headlines, great sentiment, and joyful news flow to bottom. Whether it’s 2018, 2020, 2022, or 2025, the notable “recent” market pullbacks didn’t wait for the “all clear” before resuming higher.
The April 6th deadline tied to strikes on Iranian power plants remains in place, and the rhetoric around escalation hasn’t slowed down. There are also numerous rumblings surrounding the potential of boots on the ground over this coming long weekend.
The messaging itself has been very inconsistent with claims that Iran has been significantly weakened alongside statements suggesting continued, heavy strikes over the next three weeks.
On the surface that contradiction creates uncertainty.
Under the surface though, it’s created opportunity which is why I let subscribers know in the subscriber chat that I was buying names like DELL around $156 and AKAM around $111 on Tuesday, before the announcement that sent markets soaring.
I strongly suggest joining the subscriber chat if you haven’t already. There are a lot of sharp people in there sharing ideas throughout the day, and I’m active in there daily, including flagging the potential character change in the market on Tuesday.
Throughout this pullback, I’ve held onto core positions with strong cost basis advantages and stayed positioned in leading names, like MRVL with an $84 cost basis, and even months in cases like GEV and NXT.
We’ve stayed disciplined through this stretch, and there is very likely to be meaningful opportunity ahead.
Where does the market go from here? What do I see in the charts? Why did I add exposure on Tuesday, and why did I mention the potential character change? Those are good questions, and I’m going to walk through it all below.