Liberation Day: 2026
Is the low in...?
One year ago today.
April 2nd, 2025 is the day Donald Trump shocked the world with his “Liberation Day” tariff declaration.
Days later the markets bottomed.
Nearly one year later, we’re in a very similar spot but under very different circumstances.
Last night, Trump stepped in front of the country during a primetime address very similar to the one in the Rose Garden last year, and instead of giving markets the clarity that started to be anticipated after a big rally, he introduced even more uncertainty into an already fragile situation.
But… the market reversed an initial gap down and closed green.
The news is bad, the charts are bad, sentiment is bad, everything is bad. Nobody knows when the exact bottom is but what we do know is that the market won’t wait for positive headlines, great sentiment, and joyful news flow to bottom. Whether it’s 2018, 2020, 2022, or 2025, the notable “recent” market pullbacks didn’t wait for the “all clear” before resuming higher.
The April 6th deadline tied to strikes on Iranian power plants remains in place, and the rhetoric around escalation hasn’t slowed down. There are also numerous rumblings surrounding the potential of boots on the ground over this coming long weekend.
The messaging itself has been very inconsistent with claims that Iran has been significantly weakened alongside statements suggesting continued, heavy strikes over the next three weeks.
On the surface that contradiction creates uncertainty.
Under the surface though, it’s created opportunity which is why I let subscribers know in the subscriber chat that I was buying names like DELL around $156 before the announcement that sent markets soaring.
I strongly suggest joining the subscriber chat if you haven’t already. There are a lot of sharp people in there sharing ideas throughout the day, and I’m active in there all throughout the trading day myself.
Throughout this pullback, I’ve held onto core positions with strong cost basis advantages and stayed positioned in leading names, like MRVL with an $84 cost basis, and even months in cases like GEV and NXT.
We’ve stayed disciplined through this stretch, and there is very likely to be meaningful opportunity ahead.
Where does the market go from here? What do I see in the charts? Why did I add exposure on Tuesday, and why did I mention the potential character change? Those are good questions, and I’m going to walk through it all below.
Markets have operated through this exact type of uncertainty many times before, as recent as one year ago.
The disconnect between what is being said and what is actually happening is not new. Do you remember last year in April of last year, when China was emphatic that they were not in communications with the U.S. yet the Nasdaq finished the session 2% higher?
In the coming days and weeks, it was revealed that the U.S. and China were in fact discussing a potential trade agreement.
This is normal.
Bad news is being absorbed.
We’ve seen it in prior geopolitical events, trade disputes, and even during the pandemic. While it’s not ideal that this uncertainty exists, what matters more is how the market absorbs that uncertainty.
The big issue everyone is focused on is the Strait of Hormuz. This is the critical variable in this entire situation as it’s one of the most important chokepoints in the global energy market and oil prices are holding a steady bid. But this is also the point where the market can start to be more forward looking.
Earlier today, we got news that Iran and Oman are drafting a protocol to "monitor transit" through the Strait of Hormuz. Shortly after, we got news that the U.S. will not be allowed to use the Strait.
This is very similar to when China mentioned they were “listening” to the U.S. in negotiations one day, then would deny any meaningful communication at all the next.
It’s a lot of noise, you just have to watch price.
Iran is signaling that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz would be “supervised and coordinated” alongside Oman. More importantly, they are framing this as a system meant to facilitate safe transit and avoid further disruptions. Not a restriction.
This is being described as part of a potential post war framework with the stated goal of preventing future aggression and creating a more controlled environment. The messaging is conflicting, but you need to read between the lines and look underneath the surface.
Even in scenarios like this one where oil spikes and uncertainty is running wild, markets can begin pricing in outcomes before they fully play out. We’ve seen this repeatedly in past geopolitical events where initial shocks lead to volatility but over time, markets adapt and pricing stabilizes.
The rally we’re seeing is a result of extreme negative sentiment and a public that was leaning towards a major negative outcome, ones that leaned heavily towards major escalation such as boots on the ground. We didn’t get that (yet… this would change things).
Nothing changed after the press conference last night. The deadline is the same and we have a few weeks of this operation was left. That was already in the news and there were plenty of headlines discussing it.
The past week or so has seen a sizable bounce.
This type of sharp move higher in such a short period of time can be a signal that there is demand underneath the surface. We aren’t even in a bear market, so this can’t be a bear market rally yet. It could be a dead cat bounce, but a bear market rally needs to come in a bear market.
Instead of viewing these rallies as something to fade immediately, I always view them as a signal that a bottom *could* be forming. While it’s true that there are almost always major rallies in downtrends, it’s also true that when bottoms form, rallies ensue.
To cement a bottom you need a rally off the bottom.
From a technical standpoint, there is no denying that the short term setup has been weak. On the other hand, the Nasdaq quickly recovered the 10 day and 50 week moving average while on Tuesday we saw the biggest buy volume we’ve seen since the day Trump told us to buy stocks back in April 2025.
In the image above, you can see the big green volume bar off to the right. That was this past Tuesday. The white line shows you that we have not had such large buying volume since last April.
I’m not the biggest indicator or MACD person, everyone knows that. But I do think taking an indicator and looking at it with additional context can be very useful
No chart, just the weekly QQQ MACD. What do you notice? The MACD line has only hit this level of “oversold” four times over the last six years. 2020, 2022, 2025, and now. We’ve had plenty of pullbacks along the way throughout the last six years, yet the MACD has only approached this level three times other than right now.
Something? Or nothing?
On it’s own, likely nothing. But when you add it in as a “piece of the puzzle” it can definitely be something.
We also know that every bottom comes with a higher low.
The initial low is made, the market bounces, we pull back, and either we set a higher low, or we make new lows. Are we making a higher low now?
This looks like it could be the textbook higher low with a 10 day moving average reclaim.
It will only be obvious in hindsight.
All we can do is take all of the information and context provided to us and act on it accordingly. Sometimes we’ll be wrong, and you have to accept that as a possibility while trading. For now, all of these factors listed pieced together paints a more constructive picture than what we’ve had over the past month or so.
I want to discuss what made me add more exposure on Tuesday before the big move started. I sent out a thread that I was buying stocks 10 minutes before the announcement. Why?
I had been mentioning I want to see a change in character, and in my view we started to see it.
The first thing that stood out was the fact that the gap up held in the morning. Over the past week or two, nearly every morning gap up faded quickly. This one didn’t. While it did drift lower, it wasn’t a chaotic and “rush for the exits” selloff. Not only that, but buyers stepped in aggressively. This was a major change in character and it’s part of the reason I added more exposure.
Then came the announcement that Iran was willing to discuss a way to end the war, this sent the markets soaring. Not only did good news = good news initially, but the pop didn’t fade. This tells you that the underlying bid is strong, and that’s why we saw more continuation the next day.
Although we gapped down today, the gap down was bought. We’re now in a place where gap downs are getting bought and gap ups are being bought.
That is what I consider a potential character change.
Leaders also have been acting really well. Whether it’s PL, AAOI, LITE, GEV, MRVL, DELL, BE, etc. there is no shortage of strong stocks in this market.
These are the stocks I want to own out of a correction, and I have tried to position my portfolio as such. As I always do, I’ll review my trading account on Sunday and provide my updated thoughts on all of my positions.
I’m a strong believer in focusing on leaders and leading stocks vs. the indices and we’ve seen nothing but strength in a multitude of stocks over the last few weeks.
Right now the market is shifting. Short term uncertainty is high, volatility is elevated, we’re getting mixed messaging, and tension is still high across the globe. The path forward is not entirely clear.
A lot of being a market participant comes down to feel. And something feels different.
Those are the types of conditions a bottom can form in.
This is an acknowledgment that we should be paying close attention. For weeks I have been very cautious and haven’t had as much interest in new positions.
That has changed. Perfect conditions rarely come at turning points.
The key for me is to stay focused on what actually matters, markets don’t bottom on good news. They bottom when conditions seem most chaotic or stop getting worse. This change is often subtle at first and yes it happens before the headlines completely improve.
At some point the market will completely absorb and accept the uncertainty and move higher, just like it has in every prior drawdown. The goal is not to predict exactly when that happens, but to be prepared for it when it does.
While everything may feel uncertain right now, that is often exactly where the next opportunity begins. I still have plenty of long exposure in names like DELL, GEV, MRVL, etc. and as you all know I am currently adding more exposure.
I will look to add more in the days/weeks ahead and as always, I will send out a thread with my new positions when I add them.
I hope you all have a great weekend and enjoy your additional day off. Talk soon.
Disclaimer:
This Substack is my personal trading journal and market commentary. Nothing here should be interpreted as investment advice, financial guidance, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. I am sharing my own opinions, research, and thought process strictly for informational and educational purposes.
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Awesome analysis. Thanks za. Have a pleasant Easter break
You have helped me and this community more than you’ll ever know. Appreciate you bro!