My Newest Long Term Investment
I have made my second long term investment of 2026.
The previous long term investment I made earlier this year has worked out very well so far.
I wrote about it in an article which you can find here. Since that post just one month ago it’s up about 30%, and that’s even after pulling back a bit. At one point it was up nearly 50%.
I plan to always write articles when I make a new long term investment. It gives me a place to clearly outline my rationale and overall thesis. I put a lot of thought into my long term positions. Every investment I make is bought intentionally.
At the beginning of each long term investment article, I’m going to preface it with the following message because it explains my long term investing philosophy:
It’s rare for me to make new long term investments.
I am not the type of investor who buys stocks at any price or valuation. I want to buy when I feel there is a true opportunity in the market.
I know there are plenty of investors out there who believe in buying any stock at any price or dollar cost averaging into individual stocks because “I’m going to hold forever.” But that mentality is how you can get stuck buying a Roku or Zoom at $300+ because they’re “quality businesses.”
When I evaluate a company for a potential long term holding, I always start with a few simple questions. Is there a real long term use case for what they’re doing? Are they a pioneer or leader in their space? Does their product or offering save time, money, make life easier or better, or improve efficiency? Is the product great? Do they have loyal or passionate customers or users? Do they have intense competition? Is there a geopolitical angle? Could the stock be viewed as a national security asset? Even if a company isn’t profitable yet, do their margins and revenue growth suggest they can get there? What do the fundamentals look like?
There are so many questions to ask before buying a long term investment.
I also try to keep a healthy balance of “investing in the present” and “investing in the future.” Stanley Druckenmiller is one of the best investors in history, and his quote on picking winners has resonated with me and stayed in the back of my mind ever since I read it.
“It doesn’t matter what a company is earning today or what it earned last quarter. The market is forward looking. You have to visualize where things will be 12 to 18 months from now. If you invest based on the present, you’re already behind.”
Forget what’s being said on X or the news about yesterday’s earnings. Ask yourself what the company’s situation could look like a year and a half from now. What does their guidance say? Are they going to release new products? Are there new partnerships that could turn the company around? If the future looks significantly stronger than today and the stock is cheap relative to that future, you could have found yourself an opportunity.
This is the core of my long term investing principles.
Before we get into this article, I want to mention that I’ll be releasing my next thematic primer this Thursday. The last two primers I put out came just ahead of major moves in both sectors, one being Energy (found here) and the other being Space (found here). I try to release these only when I think there’s a shift taking place across sentiment, narrative, fundamentals, and technicals at the thematic level. This theme and sector is starting to bubble up underneath the surface, and it looks like there’s tons of opportunity coming in this group.
Now, in the remainder of this article I’m going to walk through my newest long term investment, my thesis behind initiating the position, the potential risks, how I’m thinking about it going forward, and more.