The Inflection Point Is Here
The AI trade, memory, and the rest of the market are close to making a major decision.
There’s no doubt that the past few weeks (months?) have been difficult for anyone involved in the AI trade.
The easy conclusion is that the AI trade is over.
Maybe it is.
But era defining major market themes like this rarely end exactly when everyone agrees they’re over.
They often become most interesting after leverage has been wiped out and nobody wants to own the stocks that everyone was chasing only weeks earlier.
Over the past 6-8 weeks, I haven’t been as interested in the AI trade. Last week I said it was time to start paying attention for the first time in a long time, and I still believe that to be true.
We’re getting some signals that something might be happening.
More on that below.
If you’re not already in the subscriber chat, I strongly suggest paying attention to it.
This is where I post all of my new trades as I enter them. I walk through the trade idea entirely including my thesis, risk level, cost basis, and more.
The subscriber chat is also where I post a daily thread with my thoughts on the day ahead, relevant headlines and macro events, my main focus names, notable upgrades and downgrades, and anything else I’m watching.
It’s basically become a live market group chat. We have a ton of smart people sharing ideas, setups, headlines, and observations throughout the day, and there’s a lot of genuine alpha in there.
I honestly believe it might be one of the most (if not the most active) subscriber chats on Substack.
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In the remainder of this article, I’m going to discuss:
Expectations
The AI Trade
The rotation trade
How to navigate this market
What history tells us about where the market goes from here
And more.
We’re in a pivotal moment for the market and I strongly believe we’re close to a big move.
But which direction?