The Upcoming Week 11/16/25
Growth got decimated. Is it time to buy?
The growth unwind we’ve been discussing in this newsletter over the last month continued. Many names are now presenting much more favorable risk/reward.
Why the unwind? I think there were a few different potential reasons.
Sam Altman’s response to Brad Gerstner asking how OpenAI plans to spend $1T with just $20B in yearly revenue. Sam got defensive and acted insulted that Gerstner would ask such a question. Personally, I consider it a reasonable question to ask…
The White House revealing that we likely will never get the October jobs report… why is that? Likely because the numbers aren’t great.
Fed commentary has leaned hawkish: four voting members pushed back on a December rate cut.
Michael Burry presenting a case on why there’s an emerging AI bubble. You can read my analysis on his thesis and whether or not I agree here.
Are any one of those factors likely to cause a selloff on their own? No, but all four presenting themselves at once felt like the “perfect storm” to get people questioning their positioning in high beta risk assets. The destruction hasn’t just been concentrated in the small-mid caps either, large cap stocks with high AI CapEx such as Oracle and Meta have seen major drawdowns as well.
Before getting into this piece, I want to highlight the five educational articles I have posted since starting this Substack:
My plan is to release one of these each week. I’ve got a long list of topics lined up including what to look for when analyzing a companies fundamentals, combining technicals/fundamentals/thematics/narratives into a trade, the psychology of trading, how philosophy fits into the mindset of a trader, how to effectively use moving averages, identifying ideal entries during uptrends, and more. I have received very positive feedback on these pieces thus far so I suggest checking them out if you haven’t already. If there’s something specific you’d like me to cover, drop it in the comments, I read everything and I want these to be useful. The goal with this series is to build something long lasting that helps all of us trade better, think sharper, and approach the market with more discipline.
The past few weeks have been very quiet in terms of economic data due to the government shutdown, and even with the expected reopening, major releases such as CPI and jobs won’t come until December. By the time we get new economic data, it will have been around two months since the last major economic datapoint we received. That’s a lot of time to be involved with the markets without knowing what’s going on behind the curtain as it pertains to the economy. With fewer catalysts and not as much economic data, markets have rotated. I want to highlight that nearly one month ago on 10/21, I posted an article highlighting the major rotation underway here. Since this article, we’ve seen high beta risk assets go through a major correction.
In the above screenshots from the article posted on 10/21, I mentioned that “the indices still look perfectly fine up here despite selling in speculative assets, and that tells me money isn’t leaving the market, it’s just rotating.” And that’s exactly what happened. The charts I highlighted in that same article where I mentioned the major upper wicks?
Then:
OKLO $140
RGTI $40
IREN $55
Now:
OKLO $99
RGTI $25
IREN $47
Major drawdowns since this warning.
Despite the carnage in risk assets and high beta, the S&P500 is essentially flat since then. Textbook rotation. With fewer catalysts, market participants exited these high beta growth names. Why? Because without knowing whether or not inflation is perking up or the labor market is falling apart, it’s difficult to hold names with high or even extended valuations.
In this article I’m going to break down the market, the week ahead, Nvidia earnings, what I expect from here, some of the most popular retail stocks, my favorite names, and others I find interesting while highlighting key levels and strong risk/reward buying opportunities. It’s been a while since we’ve had compelling entries in many of these names, but we’re finally approaching that point. Lots of charts in here across a wide variety of stocks you see on social media and plenty you don’t!
Let’s start by taking a look at the indices and a few important ETFs: