The Upcoming Week 11/23/25
Is the momentum finally unwind over?
What a week we had.
Nvidia blew the doors off earnings and posted eye popping numbers that led to a market wide rally… for a moment. Then the wheels fell off and the momentum/AI unwind continued as questions continue to be raised about the durability of AI spend, eventual ROI, and circular financing deals. To boot, we also got FOMC minutes which showed quite the divergence in opinion across various members of the Federal Reserve regarding whether or not we’d get rate cuts.
As I highlighted last week, there are a few key reasons for this momentum unwind we’ve been seeing:
Sam Altman’s response to Brad Gerstner asking how OpenAI plans to spend $1T with just $20B in yearly revenue. Sam got defensive and acted insulted that Gerstner would ask such a question. Personally, I consider it a reasonable question to ask…
The White House revealing that we likely will never get the October jobs report… why is that? Likely because the numbers aren’t great.
Fed commentary has leaned hawkish: four voting members pushed back on a December rate cut.
Michael Burry presenting a case on why there’s an emerging AI bubble. You can read my analysis on his thesis and whether or not I agree here.
(New) Gemini 3 being trained entirely on Google’s TPUs, not Nvidia. More on this later in the article.
“Circular Financing”
I’ve seen people confused about why Nvidia sold off after such great numbers. I discussed why I thought the quarter might not be enough to rally the market + what I would need to see to start getting more aggressive in this article here.
Always remember that the market’s response to news is always more significant than the news itself.
In a strong trend positive news is often met with a positive reaction. In this environment where we have tons of questions surrounding AI for the reasons I outlined above, there is more hesitancy to pay for Nvidia at a $5T market cap despite the great numbers. Yes revenue, margins, operating income, guidance, and every other metric all came in ahead of expectations but market participants are wondering just how much growth is left. If you asked me, there’s plenty left. Robotics, autonomous vehicles, AI agents, SuperIntelligence, AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) etc. are still yet to be completely solved and the companies working on these issues have indicated they won’t stop spending. But my opinion doesn’t matter, the markets does. And right now the market is saying there are questions.
I don’t like to wait until the bottom is in to decide what I want to buy… I think it’s important to know exactly what you’re going to buy before the “blood is in the streets” so to speak. You know when you walk into a grocery store with no grocery list and suddenly the whole trip takes twice as long because you’re wandering around debating what you need, what you might want, etc? You end up wasting time going back and forth between aisles and second guessing what to buy. That is very similar to navigating a correction in the market. When everything is pulling back, it’s easy to get distracted and focus on too many stocks. That leads to missing key levels in key names. This is why it’s important to create a plan + keep a list of stocks you’re going to buy. I make sure to create and keep a core group of stocks and ideas that I’m ready to buy when the market pulls back. I ensure the work is already done beforehand so when there’s panic and opportunity, I don’t need to think twice. I can just execute. This is exactly what I did back in April. My core buy list was TSLA, PLTR, HOOD, UBER, and META. Those are the 5 names I added to in both my trading and long term investing accounts.
Notice the dates above? That was the bottom of the market.
On a side note, I want to let you all know I’ve already started working on my 2026 year ahead preview. Last year’s was a huge success with the vast majority of themes and many names outperforming the market by a wide margin. I called out the risk of a major correction due to Trump related volatility (specifically tariffs), strength in China and solar, and a handful of other trends + names that played out very well. The 2026 preview will be posted exclusively here on Substack and as we get closer to the end of 2025, I’ll provide a full recap of how the 2025 preview performed. If you want to review the 2025 preview, you can find it here. The 2026 preview will be much more in depth now that I finally have a space where I can break everything down properly.
In the remainder of this article, I’m going to run through the past week, the week ahead, my overall market thoughts, crypto, a few individual names, my “shopping list”, new positions I added on Friday, and some nice setups for the weeks ahead.
Let’s take a look at the major indices and some ETFs:
QQQ: