The Upcoming Week 12/14/25
Is the AI trade truly over...?
Hi everyone,
This week was a whirlwind to say the least.
What started off as a great week ended up turning into a down one with many names erasing a good chunk of the progress they’ve made over the last few weeks. We had FOMC, Oracle + Broadcom earnings, jobs data, Nvidia-China news, a new OpenAI model, and more that rattled the market… it was one of the more news filled weeks we’ve had in quite some time now. There is a clear rotation going on underneath the hood that I have been discussing in this newsletter and it continued to play out this week with small caps and the equal weight S&P500 outperforming tech and the Nasdaq. This is going to be something to monitor going forward as the AI debt concerns, ROI, feasibility of the buildout, etc. continue to be called into question.
Now, I know many people likely chased over the last week and ended up taking some losses… I want to emphasize one thing. The entry is the foundation of every investment or trade.
If you don’t get your entry right it will make the rest of the trade or investment very difficult to sit through and manage. Even worse, you will take tons of losses or consistently watch stocks reverse higher after stopping you out if you’re not surgical with your entry. Buy low sell high is cliche and people say it like it’s a joke but it’s not. It’s not a cliche joke to say “the time you should be buying is usually the time when you don’t want to.” I actually think it’s true. Usually the best entries are on pullbacks towards key moving averages or support areas. Psychologically it feels easer to buy the rip and sell the dip because there’s “uncertainty” when a stock is going down, but in reality that uncertainty can be an edge. Having a good entry removes the stress of holding on during volatility and keeps you from being shaken out during normal market movements. I always want to try and get the lowest cost basis possible, if I have to chase I don’t want it.
Over the two weeks we’ve had big bounces in many key names, the time to be buying these was when they were ugly before everyone else got interested. Once everyone “felt good” we saw the volatility return and those same people who didn’t buy a few weeks ago and instead bought over the last week are likely in the red sitting on losses. Always think risk first. It’s always better to wish you were IN a trade than to wish you were OUT. I’d rather be saying “I’m upset I missed that trade” vs. “Why did I take this trade, now I’m down 10%.”
Before we get into it, I just want to point out that last weeks Sunday article highlighted two of the biggest moves of the entire week in both RKLB and RIVN.
Rocket Lab was $49 at the time of this post last Sunday morning and closed the week over $61
Rivian dipped right into the mentioned $15-$16 zone after a sell thew news event and closed the week over $18.
These are just a glimpse at the ideas I post in these newsletters… they are definitely worth the read in my non biased opinion…
I also want to let you all know I’ve already started working on my 2026 year ahead preview. Last year’s was a huge success with the vast majority of themes and many of the names outperforming the market by a wide margin. In that preview I highlighted the risk of a major correction in H1 2025 tied to Trump volatility and tariffs that would end up being buyable, why I expected solar and China to outperform, and more. The 2026 preview will be posted exclusively here on Substack and as we get closer to the end of 2025, I’ll share a full recap of how the 2025 preview performed. A few of the picks included OKLO, KTOS, NBIS, TEM, EOSE, FSLR, and more. If you want to review the 2025 preview, you can find it here. I recapped the 2025 preview here as well. The 2026 preview will be far more in depth now that I finally have a space where I can break everything down properly.
In the remainder of this article I’m going to cover an AI adjacent theme that hasn’t gotten off the ground yet but had major news this week, a potential new AI stock that most people would never expect, a name in the hottest theme in the market that looks positioned to potentially play catch up, Space, my biggest focus name right now, my thoughts on the AI trade and whether this is actually a buying opportunity, some of my favorite charts and setups heading into the end of 2025, a recap of the past week, a look ahead to the week to come, and more.
This is a packed article so grab something to eat or drink and get ready to dive in.
To start things off, let’s take a look at the indices and a few important ETFs: