Weekly Market Outlook 1/18/26
2026 has been off to a roaring start.
If you’ve missed it, here are some of the largest gainers YTD:
CRML +154%
SKYT + 82%
SNDK +74%
KTOS +72%
BE +72%
AVAV +62%
ASTS +59%
RDW +54%
IREN +54%
SNDK +50%
ASTS +39%
These types of gains would be great gains for an entire year, let alone the first two weeks of the year.
On the other side of that coin, Anthropic dropped their newest Claude model which has decimated software names. Let’s take a look at some of the biggest software losers through two weeks.
TEAM -24%
INTU -17%
NOW -17%
FIG -16%
GWRE -16%
DDOG -16%
ADBE -16%
You get the point.
Software and traditional SaaS have been crushed to start the year. The issue for these names is that this new Claude model proved LLMs are slowly becoming “everything software” and they’re not just constrained to one vertical. What used to require a CRM, project manager, document editor, spreadsheet, analysis software, etc. is quickly being handled by just one system with context and autonomy, an LLM. This is a major perceived structural shift, but is that assumption true? Or is this just the Deepseek moment for software companies? More on that later.
Before we get into this article, I want to highlight and mention that my 2026 Market Outlook was published last weekend, I’ll link it here. In this article I discuss how I’m thinking about the market and indices heading into the new year, my top individual stock and trade ideas for 2026, the themes I’m focused on and the specific names within them including thematic baskets you can own or trade, macro and micro analysis, key index levels, crypto, sector and industry breakdowns, international stocks, and more. It’s a big piece, but I think it’s well worth the read. I put my all into this outlook to help you prepare for the upcoming year, and I hope you find it useful.
The last few days or so have seen headlines that have the potential to move markets far more in the coming days and weeks than they have as of late.
Trump announced 10% tariffs targeting Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland, and the UK. The tariffs are set to rise to 25% on June 1st and will remain in place until the US purchases Greenland.
The U.S. is still debating a potential strike on Iran.
Trump stated that longtime betting odds favorite Kevin Hassett is unlikely to be named the next Federal Reserve Chair. The new favorite is Kevin Warsh, who is widely viewed as a fiscal hawk.
The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are essentially flat over the last three months, it feels as if we’re getting closer to a big move in either direction.
In the remainder of this article I’m going to break down two dormant themes that look ready to lift off with compelling risk reward, a single asymmetric stock opportunity that stands out much like CoreWeave did at $64, a chart theme that’s been working across the market with several actionable setups, software stocks and where I think the opportunity is within that group, some of my favorite weekly charts, an under-discussed narrative forming, the broader market, and more.
This was one of my favorite weekly outlook articles I’ve worked on on since I’ve started this Substack, lets dive in.