Weekly Market Report 3/29/26
My trading account, monthly bases, strong groups, and more.
A self inflicted, geopolitically driven pullback heading into March–April.
I’m feeling some déjà vu.
Anyone else?
The timeline, the timeframe, everything looks very similar to what we saw in March–April 2025, except this time instead of tariffs it’s war in the Middle East. And in my view the implications are much more serious.
Even down to the negotiations. The U.S. comes out and says everything is going well and they’re negotiating, Iran says there are no serious discussions. China did the same thing.
Notably, Trump’s attempts to calm the market down are having less and less impact. A few weeks ago, his Truth Social posts claiming progress would be met with optimism and a broad bid across the market. Now we get a small pump and it fades shortly after.
If this isn’t resolved quickly, the market will likely enter a tailspin like we saw last year. As of now, the Nasdaq is down about 11%. Last April, the Nasdaq dropped 26%, so that would be more than double the size of the current pullback.
Time is running out.
It’s easy to feel eager to buy the pullback, but one thing that is very important to realize is that the big money is made in the middle.
Being focused on buying the exact bottom is pointless. Oftentimes, someone who buys a bit higher than someone who bought the low can make more because probability and confidence stack in their favor.
This increases the odds of adding real size or holding for a bigger move.
Someone who bought the exact bottom could have sold after 10% because of “dead cat bounce” fears, while someone who bought 10% off the lows could still be holding as it continues higher.
Through a pullback, I’m always watching for a bottom, but I’m not going all in trying to catch it. There’s a difference. I’ll take probing positions in names acting well, but tight stops and smaller size keep risk low. A real bottom will present plenty of opportunity to get involved on the way back up with size.
I would rather pay a little more in the early recovery phase with size than try to catch a bottom with size that doesn’t end up being the bottom.
In the remainder of this article I’m going to discuss a small cap AI name showing major relative strength with a steady stream of positive news, an under the radar group acting just like oil that almost nobody is talking about, my thoughts on Nvidia and the chart, how I’m navigating this environment and managing my trading account and which names I’m still interested in adding, the overall market, the situation in Iran, sentiment and narrative indicators, and several big picture weekly and monthly charts that still look strong despite the war, and more.