Weekly Market Report 4/5/26
Agentic AI, rockets, big bases, and more.
Happy Easter everyone.
48 hours.
That’s the deadline Trump provided to Iran on Saturday morning, before a major escalation in the Middle East is set to take place.
He didn’t specify exactly what the escalation will be, but he mentioned “Hell will rain down” if no deal is made.
This past week we saw a big bounce in the market as market participants positioned for a potential bottom off key moving averages in the indices. One key thing to note is that nobody knows if we bottomed, all you can do is act with the context and information provided by the market.
And the most recent context has been:
Largest buy volume day (Tuesday) in the S&P 500 since Trump told us to buy stocks in April 2025
Reclaim of the 10 day and 50 week moving average in the Nasdaq
Nasdaq reversing a 2% gap down to close green on Thursday after Trump’s press conference
Oil surging on Thursday but oil related stocks staying flat
Groups, individual names, and themes leading
Bad news getting absorbed
Horrible sentiment
Time will tell whether we bottomed or not, but this is the information we currently have. Also, this past week we’ve had numerous bad headlines that the market didn’t go lower on.
Iran is not willing to accept a ceasefire
New tariffs
Iran not opening the Strait of Hormuz to the U.S.
A few weeks ago the market would have likely been slammed down with even one of these headlines. When stocks stop going down on bad news, it can be a good time to start paying attention.
In case you missed it, I’ve published two very important and timely articles.
The methodology and ideology in these two articles is what led me to buy stocks on Tuesday morning this past week, I strongly suggest reading. I think these are two of my best and most important articles I’ve written since starting this Substack.
It’s not important to buy stocks at the very bottom, but it is important to notice character changes and shifts in the market + individual names. These articles outline how you can do that effectively.
In the remainder of this article I’m going to discuss the overall market, the developments in Iran and what I expect from the market if we see further escalation, and the strongest group in the market with a major pending catalyst + the names within that group that have yet to break out.
I’ll also dive into my biggest focus name with a big multi year base that’s had a wave of meaningful catalysts over the past few weeks, a major under the radar Agentic AI beneficiary, my favorite charts + focus list for new adds, my trading account + newest positions, and more.