When Fear Becomes Opportunity

The pullback creates the fear. The fear creates the opportunity. Multiple new positions were added in the midst of the chaos.

Tranquility: a noun that refers to the quality or state of being calm, peaceful, and free from disturbance, noise, or mental worry.

As market participants, tranquility is one of the most important traits we can have.

Why?

There is almost always light at the end of the tunnel. Markets are chaotic, emotional, noisy, and constantly trying to force a reaction out of us all. That’s especially true right now.

Last night I posted the following message to subscribers:

“I’m not saying don’t be cautious but getting overly bearish or short here is a bit risky.

The time to short or get very bearish was last week. Can we go lower? Sure but QQQ peak to low has corrected almost 9%, that’s relatively normal in an uptrend. Unless we’re about to crash or really crater, the worst is behind us.

For the worst to be ahead of us, we’d have to drop another 10% which would be almost a 20% correction.

SpaceX is building a lot of anxiety. Not only that, but this war is too. SpaceX IPO will pass and from there this war noise will simmer down as it has every single time so far.

Stay level headed and prepared. Things can turn quickly. Maybe we have another 5-6% lower to go, but even at that it wouldn’t match what we’ve already gone through. I personally don’t think we’re about to crash like we did in April 2025. Maybe I’m wrong but I don’t see it.

Not only do we have the largest and most anticipated IPO in history coming tomorrow with SpaceX, but we also have renewed tensions with Iran, inflation numbers, and the first FOMC with a new Fed Chair next week.

All of this is adding layers of uncertainty to the market. This is a lot to digest at once, and as a result the market is pulling back. Pullbacks in uptrends are normal. More on that tomorrow.”

And what a day we had today.

I spent this week adding multiple new positions including HOOD at $83x. I will explain why in depth below.

If you’re not already in the subscriber chat, I strongly suggest paying attention to it.

This is where I post all of my new trades as I enter them. I walk through the trade idea entirely including my thesis, risk level, cost basis, and more.

This is where I posted my three new positions in real time.

The subscriber chat is also where I post a daily thread with my thoughts on the day ahead, relevant headlines and macro events, my main focus names, notable upgrades and downgrades, and anything else I’m watching.

It’s basically become a live market group chat. We have a ton of smart people sharing ideas, setups, headlines, and observations throughout the day, and there’s a lot of genuine alpha in there.

I honestly believe it might be one of the most (if not the most active) subscriber chats on Substack.

Come join us!

In the remainder of this article, I’m going to discuss where I think we’re headed from here, the historical precedents for the action we’re seeing now with annotated charts, the average pullback within an uptrend, how to recognize when it’s time to buy, what I bought, and more.

I go in depth on several major uptrends and dissect the price action within each one to determine what’s normal, what’s not, and what typically happens before the market turns higher again.

I think this is my favorite article I’ve written to date and arguably the most important given the timing

I strongly suggest reading it because I think it will help you prepare for the eventual turn, rather than react emotionally when it happens.