The Market Is Setting A Trap
Are we due for the ultimate trap? Which direction?
OpenAI failed to meet internal targets.
The U.S. is striking Iran.
Iran is retaliating.
The negative headlines are rolling in, and they’re starting to intensify.
The type of rally we just saw off the bottom is something we’ve only seen a few times in recent market history.
Over the past decade there have only been a handful of instances where the market fell so violently and bottomed + recovered this quickly.
What’s interesting is that each of those periods followed a very similar playbook…
The opportunities in each of these uptrends was nearly identical. I’m a strong believer in studying market history, what has happened in the past often happens again in the present and will happen in the future.
No two market environments are ever exactly the same but human behavior doesn’t change…
The eventual pause or pullback will come. Will that be the top? Will you freeze? Or will you capitalize?
My job is to try and help you capitalize.
I want to quickly emphasize that the subscriber chat is where I hang out the entire day talking about the market.
This is where I post my current portfolio and my new trades.
I also create a daily thread with all of my thoughts on the day ahead, relevant headlines and macro events, my main focuses, notable upgrades and downgrades, and much more.
The daily chat is essentially like a group chat, Telegram or WhatsApp group. We have tons of smart people sharing ideas throughout the day, there’s tons of alpha being shared throughout the day. I genuinely think this might be one of the most active subscriber chats on Substack.
I want to quickly mention that I’m planning on making a new long term investment over the next few weeks. I’m still doing some final research, but have narrowed my short list down to a few names.
I don’t make long term investments often, I’ve only made two this year. But when I do, I make them count…
In addition to all of the recent big trades including ARM, DELL, MRVL, CRCL, etc. I’ve alerted subscribers to two long term investments this year.
INTC in the $30s (thesis + alert on the day of purchase here)
RDDT in the $130s (thesis + alert on the day of purchase here)
I don’t just buy anything at any price.
For me to make something a long term investment, I need to see a combination of valuation disconnect, misunderstood upside, improving or exceptional fundamentals, and a major theme + narrative that I believe can compound over time.
I believe I’ve found a few candidates. More on that soon…
Now, in the remainder of this article I’m going to walk through some of the most recent parabolic advances we’ve had in the market, what happened after, where the consolidations and buy opportunities presented themselves, whether they topped quickly, my biggest focus names in the event we do get a pullback, new leadership, how you can get positioned in what feels like a runaway train, and more.