Weekly Market Outlook 3/8/2026
War beneficiaries, big bases, the mega short squeeze, charts, and more.
The S&P 500 is down just 2.5% from all time highs. It’s flat since early October.
Meanwhile, Crude Oil is +41% over the last month and the VIX is +70%.
This is what many would call stress building under the surface.
The conflict in Iran continues to intensify, with Trump vowing to continue hitting Iran “hard.” Rumors are even starting to swirl that American troops could have boots on the ground in the Middle East over the coming weeks.
The environment is difficult but as market participants there is nobody there to stop us from making bad decisions. Only ourselves. Restraint is an edge, the market will still be here when the environment changes. If you aren’t careful, your capital might not be.
It’s more important than it’s been in a long time to be selective, this is something I have been emphasizing and discussing at length. In an uptrend or “easy money environment” you can get away with making “mistakes” or “bad decisions” but still get bailed out by the market because a rising tide lifts all boats. Not now.
There are still plenty of opportunities out there, and we have been able to capitalize.
Whether it’s NOW, CRCL, or FIG, we have been focused on what is working now, not what was.
I also want to quickly highlight that I published my third thematic primer last Sunday, this one focused on Advanced Defense + Drones. You can find the link here. My first two primers focused on the Power Grid (published 11/26 here) and Space (published 12/9 here).
In this latest primer, I discussed how the escalating situation in Iran, AI increasingly being viewed as a national security issue, and a gigantic military budget is creating a historic tailwind for modern defense and advanced warfare companies. I also included a basket of defense + drone companies I believe are positioned to outperform the broader market as this theme develops.
So far the baskets across each thematic primer have performed quite well. Since publication, the Power Grid basket is up +20% and the Space Race basket is up +45%, while both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 have been negative over those same timeframes.
In the remainder of this article I’m going to discuss a historic short squeeze candidate, a group of stocks benefiting from the conflict in the Middle East that nobody is talking about, my newest semiconductor position with a great technical, narrative, fundamental, and thematic backdrop, my favorite big base in a healthcare/medical device company and the big picture thesis behind it, the broader market, volatility and the VIX, the evolving situation in the Middle East, charts, setups, and more.
Let’s discuss.